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At first, the former US president gave the impression to take a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "severe ramifications" last August if Putin carried on hindering truce talks, he finally enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously impacted Putin's ability to support his military invasion in the region.

But, through his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Aggression

Trump's plan would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although ringing statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the initiative effectively weaken that same independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business background, the former president persists to consider the war as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the president. However, Putin's invasion is not simply about dominating a damaged region of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear goal to destroy it so it no longer serves as an attractive model for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's growing autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

Although maintaining in place the presently separated regions of these areas, Trump's plan would require the nation to surrender all of this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a key obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, leaving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv in case he subsequently opt to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would enable renewed conflict simpler for Russia, the plan would force the nation to cut the scale of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal sets no equivalent limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people government as radicals, Trump's plan states: "All extremist belief system and practices must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this point, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by allowing elections in Russia.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the plan makes Russia promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has broken similar agreements in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. Although the plan threatens a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if Russia renew its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from unclear to troubling. The initiative would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from deploying troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Russia from rebuilding his diminished military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

World Concern

A separate parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. Yet different from a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, including Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not