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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.