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"I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, adding that if the conversation went well, he might welcome the interviewer into Downing Street for a follow-up chat in the coming year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever time off for those in the top job. Just an hour before we sat down, Starmer had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his close ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was far more extended than normal, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

But as the year commences, Starmer appears to have had a degree of a reboot. Maybe even just some a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have left him in a more positive mood than at the saggy tail end of 2025, a terrible annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they reckon his standing are about to get better?

Leadership Questions

The harsh truth for the prime minister is that a significant number of his colleagues believe he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would sooner take a risk and remove him sooner rather than later.

But Sir Keir was dismissing such talk in the interview on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "assessed at the next election", insisting no one would take his term from him – even if the most effective strategy of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 may be for Labour to switch leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I intend to be at the forefront," he affirmed.

The Spring Test

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be assessed far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – up to a point. But even though he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir suggesting that there were no circumstances under which he would resign, should one of his MPs ran against him for the job, should those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to explain his low poll ratings by saying the voters was naturally anxious for things to get better. He sought to convince me, and the nation, that the coming months would be distinct.

The economic situation would improve in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the government enacted during their first turbulent year began to show results.

• He vowed to shut asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it wasn't a certainty, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western partners were now talking about how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His big point is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have spoken with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a while – more relaxed, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing pressure from various quarters for a more decisive strategy, with much more political vision, more urgency, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, should he consider a new narrative?

No government, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when comments he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting obvious political dangers as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the notion he would be comfortable with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He told me he was a "career-long proponent of international law" but the public "just do not have the full picture at the moment".

Opponents wanted him to criticise the action before the interview. And the government is likely to face increased demands to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has long been growing desire in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete plan to align more closely with the single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will probably provoke accusations that he is going back on his vow never to try to reverse the choices that followed Brexit.

A commitment to align with more of the single market will delight many on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to