From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”