Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures

The mean number of everyday homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent official figures. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have warned that homicide data could fail to signal enhanced national security.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This announcement was shared by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, explaining that last month the lowest number of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an ostensibly steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is especially true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to correctly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it may mask periods when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Using the per-day mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.